Guidelines for Causal Argument Portfolio

In this assignment, you will come up with 3 original examples of cogent Causal Arguments, to show that you know how to use them correctly.

Make sure that the content of the arguments is as different from one another as possible, that you use a different one of Mill’s methods in each of the arguments, and that one of them is the method of Correlation.

1. For each argument, think of a surprising or unusual occurrence that needs to be explained. It doesn’t have to be an actual case, but it should be based an a real life example and be consistent with the laws of nature and other facts.

2. In the First premise, describe the effect and provide an exhaustive list the potential causes of this effect that includes at least three potential causes.

3. In the Second premise, apply one of Mill’s methods to the list of potential causes. Use the name of the method as the title for the argument. In this premise, make sure to sufficiently describe your application of the method (see below), and make sure that the method eliminates all of the potential causes except for one.

4. In the Third premise, explain the relationship between the remaining cause and the effect, to make sure that you aren’t falling for one of the causal confusions.

5. When you have completed a draft of your portfolio, double check your grammar and spelling, the formatting of the paper, and each item on the checklist below. Then write or type the following signing statement and sign your name: “I have carefully read and followed the guidelines and thoroughly edited my paper for grammar, spelling, and formatting.”

General Form of a Causal Argument:

1. A description of the effect and an exhaustive list of its potential causes. (Include at least 3 potential causes.)

2. Application of one of the four methods, indicating that only one of the potential causes satisfies the method.

3. An explanation of the relationship between the remaining cause and the effect.

4. Therefore, the remaining cause is probably the cause of the effect.

Example of the Joint Method:

1. My landline phone goes dead quite frequently, and it might be caused by a short in the cord, a malfunction in the phone’s electronics, or a problem in the phone company’s circuits or cables.

2. The effect happens whenever I pull on the cord, and goes away when I stop pulling on the cord, and there is no evidence of a malfunction in the phone’s electronics or a problem in the phone company’s circuits or cables.

3. A short in the cord can cause a phone to go dead by cutting off the signal entering the phone.

4. Therefore, a short in the cord is probably the cause of my phone going dead.

Example of Correlation:

1. The patient suffers from occasional headaches, and they may be caused by stress, lack of sleep, or consumption of caffeine.

2. There is a high inverse correlation between the occurrence and severity of the headaches and the amount of sleep the patient got the night before – the less sleep the more likely and more severe the headache will be – and no correlation with the amount of stress or caffeine consumed.

3. Lack of sleep can cause headaches by inhibiting the body from relaxing muscles in the head and reducing blood pressure.

4. Therefore, lack of sleep is probably the cause of the patient’s headaches.

Grammar and Spelling: Make sure that your papers are clearly written – i.e., that the meaning is clear enough that any other student would be able to understand it. Papers will be downgraded for spelling, grammatical, and stylistic errors if there are more than 2 per page.

Sources: You shouldn’t use any outside sources since your arguments are supposed to be original.

Format: Typed, 12 point type, 1-1.5 inch margins, number and staple pages if more than one page. Include a title and make sure that the parts of the portfolio are neatly arranged

Checklist

A. Name – Indicate the method used above each argument.

B. Originality and Diversity – None of the arguments should use examples that were used in class, in our textbook, or that you found in some other source like the Internet. Also, the content of each argument should be as different as possible from the others.

C. List of Potential Causes – Is the list of potential causes in the First premise exhaustive? Did you include at least three of them?

D. Three Different Methods, including Correlation – Did you use a different method in each argument? Is one of them Correlation?

E. Correct Application of the Methods – Did you correctly apply the method and sufficient describe its application in the Second premise?

F. Plausible Explanation – Does the Third premise contain a plausible explanation of the relationship between cause and effect?

G. Inductive – Did you include the word ‘probably’ or a synonym in the Conclusion in order to indicate that this is an inductive argument?

H. Number both Premises and the Conclusion – Is each premise and conclusion in an argument numbered and on a separate line, and does the conclusion should start with ‘Therefore …’?

Mill’s Methods:

Agreement – If two or more occurrences of a phenomenon have only one relevant factor in common, the phenomenon and the factor are probably causally related.

Difference – If there is only one relevant factor present when a phenomenon occurs, and absent when it does not occur, the phenomenon and the factor are probably causally related.

Joint – If two or more occurrences of a phenomenon have only one relevant factor in common, and that factor is the only one both present when the phenomenon occurs and absent when it does not occur, the phenomenon and the factor are probably causally related.

Correlation –  If a relevant factor is highly correlated with a phenomenon, the two are probably causally related.