Guidelines for
Inductive Generalization Portfolio
In this assignment, you will come up with 3 original examples of cogent Inductive Generalizations, to show that you know how to use them correctly. Make sure that the content of the arguments is as different from one another as possible.
Universal Argument
1. Identify an unchanging fact about nature, and state it in the Conclusion as the Relevant Property. State ‘Universal’ above the argument.
2. In the First Premise, state that in numerous observations by human beings, this Relevant Property has always been present.
3. In the Second Premise, provide a plausible explanation for the universal occurrence of the Relevant Property in order to show that is isn’t merely a coincidence.
4. Make sure that each of the premises is uncontroversially true.
General Form of a Universal Inductive Generalization:
1. The Sample (including a very large sample size) always has the Relevant Property.
2. Explanation of the universal occurrence of the Relevant Property. (I.e., why it isn’t merely a matter of coincidence.)
3. Therefore, it is probably the case that every member of the Population has the Relevant Property.
Example (Universal):
1. In the countless observations made in human history, the sun has always risen in the East and set in the West.
2. This is consistent with the fact that the earth revolves around the sun and rotates in a particular direction, and the fact that the North and South poles keep the earth stable. (Explanation)
3. Therefore, it is probably the case that the sun always rises in the East and sets in the West.
Particular Arguments
1. It is easiest to start by generating a Conclusion and
then search for Premises. If you choose this approach, start with the Conclusion
(e.g., “68% of
2. The First Premise should contain a Sample along with the Relevant Property mentioned in the Conclusion, and should include a specific Sample Size and the percentage of the Sample that has the Relevant Property. For the Particular arguments, you should try to find a Sample online or in some other source (which you will need to cite). (Wikipedia and gmj.gallup.com are good sources.) If you can’t, generate a make believe sample. Each of the other premises should be uncontroversially true.
3. In the Second Premise of the Particular arguments, identify an Additional Property or Properties that are highly correlated with the Relevant Property. The Additional Property shouldn’t be identical or closely related to the Relevant Property – it should be a distinct property. Make a rough guess how high the correlation is, stating it as a percentage. If you think it is 50% or less, then the correlation isn’t high, and you need to find a new Additional Property.
4. In the Third Premise of the Particular argument, provide a plausible explanation for this high correlation in order to show that is isn’t merely a coincidence.
5. In the Fourth Premise of the Particular argument, state that these Additional Properties are well-represented by the Sample. If you don’t believe they are, then you need to go back to the Second Premise and replace the Additional Properties.
General Form of a Particular Inductive Generalization:
1. The Sample (including sample size) has the Relevant Property (including percentage).
2. In the Sample, the Relevant Property is highly correlated with one or more Additional Properties (list them). (I.e., they are present in the Sample to about the same degree or percentage as the Relevant Property).
3. Explanation of the correlation. (I.e., why it isn’t merely a matter of coincidence.)
4. The prevalence of these Additional Properties in the Population is well-represented by the Sample. (I.e., they are present in the Population to about the same degree or percentage as they are in the Population.)
5. Therefore, Population probably has the Relevant Property (including percentage).
Example (Particular, Opinion):
1. 73% of 1000
2. In the sample, views about issues of public spending are highly correlated (81%) with the demographic features political affiliation, age, and income. (Correlation)
3. This correlation isn’t surprising because the majority of the members of these demographic groups and their family members would directly benefit from increased spending on education. (Explanation)
4. The sample represents the population well in terms of political affiliation, age, and income. (Representativeness)
5. Therefore, it is probably the case that 73% of all
Example (Particular, Fact about Nature):
1. 26% of 1000
2. In the sample, levels of Pollutant X are highly correlated (74%) with the proximity of the lake or river to a current or former factory. (Correlation)
3. This correlation doesn’t appear to be a matter of chance because factories are the only source of Pollutant X. (Explanation)
4. The sample represents the population well in terms of their proximity to a current or former factory. (Representativeness)
5. Therefore, it is probably the case that 26% of all
When you have completed a draft of your portfolio, double check your grammar and spelling, the formatting of the paper, and each item on the checklist below. Then write or type the following signing statement and sign your name: “I have carefully read and followed the guidelines and thoroughly edited my paper for grammar, spelling, and formatting.”
Grammar and Spelling: Make sure that your papers are clearly written – i.e., that the meaning is clear enough that any other student would be able to understand it. Papers will be downgraded for spelling, grammatical, and stylistic errors if there are more than 2 per page.
Citations: Cite all sources that influenced your work, using any standard citation method that includes all of the relevant information (including exact page numbers if it is a printed source and the exact date and URL if it is a webpage). Otherwise you are engaging in plagiarism. The citation should be placed directly under the relevant argument.
Format: Typed, 12 point type, 1-1.5 inch margins, number and staple pages if more than one page. Include a title and make sure that the parts of the portfolio are neatly arranged
Checklist
A. Name – Above each argument, indicate whether the conclusion is Universal, Particular (Opinion), or Particular (Fact about Nature). You need to include one example of each.
B. Originality and Diversity – None of the arguments should use examples that were used in class, in our textbook, though you can work from surveys or studies as long as you cite the source. Also, the content of each argument should be as different as possible from the others.
C. Uncontroversially True Premises – Are each of the Premises uncontroversially true (with the exception of made up samples)? Are all the claims in the Premises plausible?
D. Information about Sample – Does Premise 1 of the Particular arguments include a sample, a specific sample size, and the specific percentage of members of the sample that have the relevant property?
E. Approximate Percentage – Does Premise 2 of the Particular arguments include an approximate percentage, and is this percentage greater than 50%?
F. Additional Property Different from the Relevant Property – In Premise 2 of the Particular arguments, is the additional property clearly distinct from the relevant property?
G. Inductive – Did you include the word ‘probably’ or a synonym in the Conclusion in order to indicate that this is an inductive argument?
H. Number both Premises and the Conclusion – Is each premise and conclusion in an argument numbered and on a separate line, and does the conclusion should start with ‘Therefore …’?